Ammonia Market Outlook


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Ammonia Market Outlook

A Subscription Provides:

  • Four quarterly reports - instead of receiving one annual report and three quarterly updates, you will now receive four consistently updated reports.  This will ensure that you are kept briefed on the industry throughout the year.
  • Hard copies and online access to the full report.
  • Access to CRU's analysts in London, Mumbai and Beijing. 
  • Diagrams downloadable in Powerpoint format.
  • Supporting data downloadable in Excel format.

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CRU's Ammonia Market Outlook, published Tuesday 30th September 2014, reports that supply has become especially tight as disruptions in Ukraine, North Africa and Trinidad push prices towards $600/t. CRU Senior Consultant Alistair Wallace writes "We are not expecting pressure on supplies to ease until Q1 2015, and the geopolitical nature of these disruptions will increase near-term upside risk.."

The Essential Resource for the Global Ammonia Market

The surge in ammonia prices in the final quarter of 2011 was revisited towards the end of the first half of 2012 - however the bullish market sentiment is expected to abate over the course of the rest of the year. In Q2 of 2012 prices for ammonia and downstream nitrogen products started to move in the opposite directions: ammonia markets tightened on the back of supply disruptions and improved demand, while urea prices plunged in June and nitrates followed.

The prospect for ammonia prices during 2012 and 2013 is downbeat due to resistance from industrial and phosphate buyers, emergence of new supply from Algeria and resolved technical problems of traditional exporters in the Middle East and other markets.

Meanwhile, the impact of the burgeoning shale gas industry in North America will continue to play an important role in the future of the US nitrogen industry, with gas prices remaining very low and producer margins increasing, and will have impacts in key ammonia trading markets around the world.

The Ammonia Market Outlook addresses the most important issues facing the ammonia industry today:

  • What effect will the shale gas revolution have on the North American industry, both in short term prices and medium term industry structure?
  • What is the latest schedule for start up of new ammonia projects?  The details are set out using CRU's project gateway system.
  • What are the key factors affecting and determining ammonia prices?  How will prices develop in the short to long term?
  • What drives merchant ammonia demand?  Who are the key suppliers in the industry?
  • What is the outlook for energy markets and their impact on the ammonia price trend?

CRU - Developments in our Market Outlooks

At CRU we are constantly investing in our research to provide you with the most comprehensive analysis and forecasting service anywhere in the world.  Our outlooks are now published in a new format which will be easier to use and with transparent and robust methodologies covering supply, demand, and pricing - both in the medium and long term.

CRU's Ammonia Market Outlook now offers you:

  • New Crop Demand Model: CRU has developed its analysis of agriculture markets to create a country level crop-by-crop nutrient demand model, based on trends in planted acreage and application rates. Combined with our insights into current market trends and the feedback of crop prices and fertilizer prices into short term demand, this provides you with a unique view of future fertilizer demand by nutrient, providing the strongest ever foundation for our commodity demand analysis.
  • A clear system of assessing ammonia capacity: CRU's comprehensive site by site databases of current and planned supply provides a robust and transparent forecast of ammonia capacity. This transparency allows you to clearly understand our data and develop your own scenarios.
  • Robust price forecasting methodology: The Ammonia Market Outlook uses supply and demand analysis to provide a detailed forecast for prices, with a particular focus on the upside and downside risk in the short to medium term. You will be provided with a detailed rationale on price movements with insights into the drivers behind the price change. Our robust methodology will give you the confidence you need to use this data in your own analysis.
  • New long-term price analysis: The Ammonia Market Outlook will now provide you with a separate appendix covering supply, demand and price forecasts in the long term.  This ensures you have a unique view of market fundamentals for the next 25 years, supporting your long-term decisions.
  • Regular, consistent and up-to-date market intelligence:  Each publication will provide a consistent and up to date view of the market, leading to the most robust forecast available, clearly explained and with a fuller executive summary.  The Ammonia Market Outlook is published every three months, ensuring you are kept thoroughly updated on the market throughout the year.
  • Indepth coverage of nitrogen markets: CRU's analysts based on the ground in the UK, USA, Chile, India and China provide up-to-date and insightful analysis from within the market place. 
  • Exclusive access to our analysts: CRU has four analysts dedicated to nitrogen. As a client, you can phone or email our analysts to discuss our forecast and insight into the market. We can also arrange face to face meetings at your offices.

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Ammonia Cost Curve

Benchmark costs at global ammonia plants from 2004-2012. Part of CRU's Nitrogen Cost Curve Database.

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