Although global phosphate fertilizer markets have recovered from the turmoil of 2008/2009, they are now entering a renewed period of uncertainty in 2012. With China, the world's largest producer of P based fertilizers, tightening its export tariffs to include TSP and NPs in the high tariff season, and an underlying weakness emerging in India, the world's largest importer of DAP, the next few months are likely to prove critical.
The Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook describes in detail how these events are likely to impact the global phosphoric acid, DAP, MAP and TSP markets, both in the short and medium term (2012-2017), and therefore is essential for anyone looking at these markets on a daily basis.
As part of the new service, CRU also offers its long term perspectives on these markets, providing demand, supply and price forecasts out 25 years in the future.
The Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook addresses the most important issues facing the Phosphate industry today:
- Indian demand: India is the world's second largest consumer of phospahte fertilizers and the largest importer of DAP. Thus developments in this market have a major impact on global trends. In recent years, subsidies have repeatedly been revised downwards, and the country's economic weakness points to a potential decline in fertilizer demand. The CRU quarterly examines this in considerable detail, to see how this will impact market developments in 2012.
- South American demand: With an anticipated slowdown in demand from South Asia, the fertilizer industry has turned its attention to Latin America. The CRU quarterly looks at what crops are likely to be grown in the future, and how this is likely to shape Latin American demand over the short/medium term.
- Additions to supply: Supply side developments are dominated by the MENA region. OCP and Ma'aden have laid out ambitious expansion projects for the medium term outlook. Using CRU's Project Gateway System, the quarterly looks at the likelihood of projects coming onstream and what impact this will have on supply fundamentals.
- Price outlook: CRU uses market fundamentals and also cost estimates to forecast prices forward, both in the medium and long term.
CRU - Developments in our Market Outlooks
At CRU we are constantly investing in our research to provide you with the most comprehensive analysis and forecasting service anywhere in the world. Our outlooks are now published in a new format which will be easier to use and with transparent and robust methodologies covering supply, demand, and pricing - both in the medium and long term.
CRU's Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook now offers you:
- New Crop Demand Model: CRU has developed its analysis of agriculture markets to create a country level crop-by-crop nutrient demand model, based on trends in planted acreage and application rates. Combined with our insights into current market trends and the feedback of crop prices and fertilizer prices into short term demand, this provides you with a unique view of future fertilizer demand by nutrient, providing the strongest ever foundation for our commodity demand analysis.
- A clear system of assessing phosphate capacity: CRU's comprehensive site by site databases of current and planned supply provides a robust and transparent forecast of phosphate capacity. This transparency allows you to clearly understand our data and develop your own scenarios.
- Robust price forecasting methodology: The Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook uses supply and demand analysis to provide a detailed forecast for prices, with a particular focus on the upside and downside risk in the short to medium term. You will be provided with a detailed rationale on price movements with insights into the drivers behind the price change. Our robust methodology will give you the confidence you need to use this data in your own analysis.
- New long-term price analysis: The Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook will now provide you with a separate appendix covering supply, demand and price forecasts in the long term. This ensures you have a unique view of market fundamentals for the next 25 years, supporting your long-term decisions.
- Regular, consistent and up-to-date market intelligence: Each publication will provide a consistent and up to date view of the market, leading to the most robust forecast available, clearly explained and with a fuller executive summary. The Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook is published every three months, ensuring you are kept thoroughly updated on the market throughout the year.
- Indepth coverage of phosphate markets: CRU's analysts based on the ground in the UK, USA, India and China provide up-to-date and insightful analysis from within the marketplace.
- Exclusive access to our phosphate analysts: CRU has two analysts dedicated to phosphate fertilizers. As a client, you can phone or email our analysts to discuss our forecast and insight into the market. We can also arrange face to face meetings at your offices.