The phosphates industy has been subject to significant changes in recent decades. In the USA, Florida's rock reserves have continued to decline, and in the process pushed North American production down to such an extent, that close to 3.0 million tonnes of rock nwo needs to be imported into the US market on an annual basis.
Meanwhile, Chinese production has continued to grow in recent years, raising the country's share of global production to 40% in 2011.
The combination of soaring demand for P based fertilizer products, and high rock prices, have also seen mines being commissioned in South America (Peru) and the Middle East (Saudi Arabia) . Further expansions have also been outlined for Africa, Europe, South America, the Middle East, the FSU, Asia and Oceania over the medium term (2012-2017).
CRU's Phosphate Rock Market Outlook describes in detail how these events are likely to impact the global rock and fertilizer markets, both in the short and medium term, and therefore is essential for anyone looking at these markets on a daily basis. As part of the new service, CRU also offers its long term perspectives on these markets, providing demand, supply and price forecasts out 25 years in the future.
The Phosphate Rock Market Outlook addresses the most important issues facing the phosphates industry today:
- USA Rock Supply: US rock production has fallen by a quarter since 2007. Whilst various factors have contributed to this trend (environmental, etc), it can largely be attributed to the availability of reserves. Many of the easy to access, high grade rock seams in North America, have been mined out, increasing the complexity of the mining process and pushing up production costs. As a consequence, CRU acknowledges that ever greater quantities of product will need to be imported from the seaborne market. CRU's Market Outlook examines the different options available to US based consumers, and provides an opinion on where this is likely to come from.
- Moroccan Expansions: While US rock production continues to decline, Moroccan rock production is forecast to fare better during the forecast period.CRU does not only expect OCP to exploit new mining areas during the next few years, but they have also addressed a key bottleneck in their production process: logistics. The CRU Market Outlook, outlines the various expansion plans of the leading African producer, and in the process estimates what impact this will have on the global seaborne market.
- Chinese Competitively: Strong domestic demand for rock has seen Chinese production double over the past decade. One of the major questions facing the industry is whether this trend can be sustained? The report considers the impact that lower rock grades and higher labour/energy costs are likely to have on production during the medium term forecast.
- New Players: New capacity has recently been commissioned in MENA and Latin America. Going forward, the likes of OCP have laid out ambitious expansion projects for the forecast period. Using CRU's Project Gateway System, the quarterly looks at the likelihood of projects coming on-stream and what impact this will have on supply fundamentals.
CRU - Developments in our Market Outlooks
At CRU we are constantly investing in our research to provide you with the most comprehensive analysis and forecasting service anywhere in the world. Our outlooks are now published in a new format which will be easier to use and with transparent and robust methodologies covering supply, demand, and pricing - both in the medium and long term.
CRU's Phosphate Rock Market Outlook now offers you:
- New Crop Demand Model: CRU has developed its analysis of agriculture markets to create a country level crop-by-crop nutrient demand model, based on trends in planted acreage and application rates. Combined with our insights into current market trends and the feedback of crop prices and fertilizer prices into short term demand, this provides you with a unique view of future fertilizer demand by nutrient, providing the strongest ever foundation for our commodity demand analysis.
- A clear system of assessing phosphate rock capacity: CRU's comprehensive site by site databases of current and planned supply provides a robust and transparent forecast of phosphate rock capacity. This transparency allows you to clearly understand our data and develop your own scenarios.
- Robust price forecasting methodology: The Phosphate Rock Market Outlook uses supply and demand analysis to provide a detailed forecast for prices, with a particular focus on the upside and downside risk in the short to medium term. You will be provided with a detailed rationale on price movements with insights into the drivers behind the price change. Our robust methodology will give you the confidence you need to use this data in your own analysis.
- New long-term price analysis: The Phosphate Rock Market Outlook will now provide you with a separate appendix covering supply, demand and price forecasts in the long term. This ensures you have a unique view of market fundamentals for the next 25 years, supporting your long-term decisions.
- Regular, consistent and up-to-date market intelligence: Each publication will provide a consistent and up to date view of the market, leading to the most robust forecast available, clearly explained and with a fuller executive summary. The Phosphate Rock Market Outlook is published every six months, ensuring you are kept thoroughly updated on the market throughout the year.
- Exclusive access to our analysts: CRU has two analysts dedicated to phosphates. As a client, you can phone or email our analysts to discuss our forecast and insight into the market. We can also arrange face to face meetings at your offices.