Aluminium Long Term Market Outlook


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Aluminium Long Term Market Outlook

A Subscription Provides:

  • Main report in hard copy and online so that you can examine market trends and forecasts
  • Separate smelter profile packs allowing you to benchmark all major green and brown field projects worldwide
  • Conference call with the editor as well as exclusive access to CRU’s analysts in London, Beijing, Mumbai and USA
  • Executive summary analysis update
  • All statistical appendices and supporting data online in Excel

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CRU's Aluminium Long Term Market Outlook published Wednesday 16th December 2015, reports that overcapacity in China will cap prices on the upside over the next ten years. CRU's Managing Consultant Marco Georgiou reports "China will remain in surplus and exports will rise. Although this will cap prices on the upside over this period, by 2040, a large investment need will emerge outside China. China, however, will need to shutter plants".

Your essential resource for understanding how the Aluminium Market will evolve

The Aluminium Long Term Market Outlook report is your essential resource for companies looking to understand what will drive aluminium demand and how the world aluminium market is likely to look in the future.

We present a market balance for aluminium by major region through to 2023 including production and capacity data by smelter. We discuss the risks to the outlook presented and which regions are most likely to attract future smelting projects. By using detailed project and costs analysis we benchmark future smelting projects and discuss the challenges producers face in the future to add new capacity. In addition, we review the energy sources that could power future aluminium projects. CRU presents a price forecast in the report through to 2035.

We discuss the big questions facing the aluminium industry:

  • When will aluminium prices improve?
  • Is there sufficient smelting capacity to meet future world aluminium demand?
  • What will be the consequence of China’s rapid build-up in semis capacity, will it flood the global market with semis?
  • Is the increasing uptake of aluminium automotive body sheet the growth story that the industry is searching for?

CRU uses its proprietary Compass Model* to predict primary aluminium demand through to 2035 analysing the trends in intensity of use for the light metal.

*CRU’s exclusive Compass methodology has been established in long term commodity price forecasting for over 10 years and is utilized in our Long Term Outlooks for Copper, Aluminium, Iron Ore and Metallurgical Coal.

The Aluminium Long Term Market Outlook report is an essential resource for companies looking to understand what will drive aluminium demand and how the world aluminium market is likely to look in the future.

Key new features:

  • Detailed primary and semis forecasts extended to capture ten years, 2012-2023
  • Forecasts of regional canstock capacity and autobody sheet demand 
  • Greater coverage of end-use products demand
  • Increased scenario analysis
  • Full update on all forecasts and project profiles

Why CRU for Aluminium?

  • A truly established and Independent understanding ofthe entire Aluminium industry, based on over 40 years of experience covering the market
  • More than 20 full time industry experts and consultants covering the aluminium market 
  • Comprehensive service based on detailed coverage of the entire aluminium chain - bauxite, alumina, carbon products, primary aluminium and downstream products 
  • Dedicated offices in London, Beijing, and the US provide a truly global perspective for the industry and all impacting factors.

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