Aluminium Price Risk Management Service – a unique four-part service which is designed to help subscribers manage their exposure to price volatility in the aluminium market

Aluminium prices have seen wild swings during the global downturn, and a range of industry stakeholders have been impacted as a result. Since the beginning of 2008, prices have dropped from almost US $3000 to below $1400 and back above $2000 again, and during this time many different companies such as miners, refineries, traders and consumers have suffered because of these violent price movements.

A further result of the global downturn and low interest rates worldwide has been the influx of speculators into the traded metals markets in search of higher returns. Their presence in the aluminium industry now means that prices can no longer be fully analysed using only the market fundamentals of supply and demand. Industry stakeholders now need to understand the impacts of hedge funds and speculators so they can plan how to better hedge their potential risk against price volatility in the months ahead.

In this light, CRU provides our Aluminium Price Risk Management Service – a unique four-part service which is designed to help subscribers manage their exposure to price volatility in the aluminium market. Each month, we produce updated price forecasts generated using our proprietary Monte Carlo simulation models.

Through our daily and weekly publications, subscribers receive our highfrequency analysis of the risks to the forecast, while our monthly publications present fully-updated forecasts and analysis of price drivers. Additionally, quarterly webcasts allow subscribers to discuss the market with our analysts:

• Aluminium Morning Market – a daily snapshot of aluminium prices on the LME, plus relevant market data
  and key news items
• Aluminium Weekly Outlook – a weekly discussion of the prior week’s market events and how they are expected to affect the aluminium price and our forecast
• Aluminium Price Perspective – every month, an in-depth report includes price forecasts for the next 4 quarters presented as probability distributions, along with analysis of the major factors that drive price movements and recommendations on purchasing/sales price targets
• Analyst Webcasts – subscribers are invited to participate in a webcast with our analysts to explore how the latest market developments are  expected to influence the future direction of the aluminium price