CRU Wire and Cable’s Top 10 Themes for 2020

At CRU Wire and Cable, we offer unrivalled independent market analysis utilising the expertise of our global team of analysts.

We cover market developments in all major cable end-use sectors and track production at over 200 facilities in 32 countries around the globe. Three key focus areas form the basis of much of our research; Energy Cable (split into LV Energy <1kV and Power Cable +1kV), winding wire and communication cable.

With extensive experience in commodity analysis and vast wire and cable industry knowledge, CRU form our ‘Top 10 Themes for 2020’.

We will be continuously monitoring these themes throughout the course of 2020 to see how they are performing against expectations. Please get in touch via the form below should you have any questions.

China’s electricity grid investment will flatline

Chinese grid investment fell short of the 2019 target, contracting by 9.6% y/y. The country’s utility sector consumes approx. 1.9 Mt conductors of cable per year, with the expected low investment levels in 2020 weighing heavily on power cable demand

Coronavirus outbreak will impact Chinese demand

The lockdowns in China will inevitably impact key cable end use sectors such as construction and automotive production. With the Chinese economy already on a slower growth path, a further deceleration will drag down cable demand at a quicker pace.

Global automotive industry will remain under pressure

CRU expects the global automotive industry to enter another turbulent year, limiting the upwards potential of winding wire and harness industries. The outlook reflects an improved European and weakened Asian and North American automotive industry.

Trade tensions will keep impacting the global value chain

The US-China “Phase One” trade deal will not reverse the current low levels of US imports from China, with the latter continuing to divert its production to other countries. The signing of USMCA is also expected to facilitate further North American intra-trade.

Switch to renewable energy will support power cable demand

Power cable demand outside China will remain the fastest growing cable segment for a second year in a row. The outlook partially reflects a strong global renewable project pipeline, particularly in the cable-intensive offshore wind sector.

India’s cable demand will improve from the 2019 low

The Indian market will have a stronger 2020, due to the lack of general elections, combined with several fiscal and monetary stimuli. October’s new five-year investment plan (US$1,427 bn) promises to invest US$47 bn in cable end-use sector this year, particularly power-related.

Brexit uncertainty will remain a key risk to the Western European market

Despite the UK’s formal departure from the EU in January 31st, the future UK-EU relationship remains unclear. A disconnect between the two markets will have strong direct and indirect impact on the European market. A weak auto sector also remains a key risk.

Russia’s residential financing policy change will limit demand

Russian LVE cable consumption is expected to contract this year, as July’s housing financing policy change weighs negatively on the construction sector. Numerous small and mid-size construction companies face severe financing difficulties in the policy’s aftermath.

ASEAN market will be the world’s fastest growing region

The region’s continued urbanisation and industrialisation is expected to heavily benefit the domestic cable industry. On the downside, a weak Asian automotive outlook will negatively impact the region’s automotive harness industry.

Commodity prices to remain volatile in near-term

With uncertainties surrounding the recent outbreak of novel coronavirus ongoing and heightened geopolitical tensions enduring,we believe commodity prices will remain volatile throughout 2020, especially for copper and Brent crude. China will remain a key determinant.