CRU’s Economics team is dedicated to providing tailored, timely and insightful analysis and forecasts of the economic and industrial environments in which CRU’s clients operate.
The team supports a wide range of monthly, quarterly and semi-annual services with analytical content, which underpin the full range of demand and cost platforms used by the Business Units at CRU, across short, medium and long-term time horizons. In addition the team provides forecasting and modelling assistance to bespoke projects.
Who we are
Grant Colquhoun: Group Economist.
Grant rejoined CRU in 2007 as Principal Economist, becoming Group Economist in 2012. Grant previously worked for the economic consultancy Oxford Economics, for HM Treasury and for British Steel, having started his career in CRU's Steel business unit in 1994. At Oxford Economics Grant was responsible the international industrial forecasting service and econometric model and undertook industry related consultancy projects. As a macro economist at HM Treasury Grant provided economic forecasts and analysis for the UK government's budgets and economic policies. In British Steel's Corporate Planning department Grant produced economic, industrial and steel demand forecasts. Since rejoining CRU he has been responsible for economic analysis of China, long-run global macroeconomic forecasts, forecasting of cost drivers and CRU's industrial and economic forecasting. Grant holds a BSc in Economics from the University of Bath and an MSc in Economics and Finance from the University of Bristol.
Lisa Morrison: Principal Economist
Lisa joined the Economics team in September 2015 and is responsible for coverage of the Americas. She was recruited to CRU Consulting in 1995 and contributed to a wide variety of bespoke projects and models. In 2007, CRU acquired Commodity Metals Management Company which Lisa joined to provide short-term risk management tools and advice for aluminium and copper market consumers, with a focus on enhancing price forecasting models by capturing the impact of investors on the LME metals complex. From September 2013, she participated in a successful sales and marketing initiative focused on increasing financial market clients in New York and London. During her tenure at CRU, Lisa has spoken at a wide variety of CRU conferences and industry forums on topics including investor influence, risk and price dynamics. She holds a Master's degree in Economics from New York University and a Bachelor's degree in Economics from Drew University.
Sunny Liu: Senior Economist.
Sunny joined CRU in September 2014 and is responsible for forecasting of costs drivers across base metals, iron ore, steel and fertilizer sectors; developing and implementing CRU's forecast methodology; and producing cost driver analysis for China at the provincial level. Prior to joining CRU, Sunny was an Economist in the Pricing and Purchasing Team of IHS, where she was responsible for estimating commodity market supply/demand, forecasting price developments and producing bespoke analysis for large multinational clients. Sunny holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Bath where her research focused on sovereign credit risk and the macroeconomy.
Jonathan Humphrey: Economist.
Jonathan joined CRU in February 2014 and is responsible for CRU’s coverage of macroeconomic and industrial sector developments in the Americas. He also is responsible for the development of econometric models used in CRU’s analysis work. Before joining CRU, Jonathan worked for the New York Stock Exchange group and obtained an MSc International Money, Finance and Investment from Durham University.
Patrick Greene: Economist.
Patrick joined CRU in February 2015 and is responsible for CRU's coverage of macroeconomic and industrial sector developments in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Patrick holds a BA in Economics from Durham University and an MSc in Economics from Trinity College Dublin.
What we do
- Industrial and economic analysis and forecasts
This monthly publication includes a five-year global industrial and economic outlook. In addition to the overall economic outlook the report focuses on prospects for industrial production, construction and automobile production. The report also considers the latest forecast risks, the exchange rate outlook and scenario analysis.
- Supporting forecasts and analysis for cost services
Quarterly updates of core cost drivers used in CRU’s cost models, COMPASS models and in project work. Cost variables covered include exchange rates, electricity, labour, energy, freight and capital. Annual forecasts are provided out to 2035 for more than 30 countries and regions.
- Economic news stories – “Week In The News”
Regular news stories of key economic and industrial data releases from around the world, linking these developments to the CRU in-house economic view.
- Supporting forecasts and analysis for Long Run Outlook reports and COMPASS services
This quarterly service covers 25 year ahead forecasts for population, GDP, investment and industrial production by regions and major countries.
- Econometric modelling
The team is responsible for developing and supporting econometric models that assist CRU’s analysts in producing robust and transparent forecasts in CRU’s reports.
- Insight pieces
Ad hoc in-depth insight articles for the CRU website and clients which explore a topical or structural economic issue in detail, and how these may impact commodity markets.
- Bespoke economic and industrial analysis and forecasts
The team also support CRU’s analysts in providing forecasts and economic analysis not provided in regular services.