In 2026, Africa’s position in global commodity markets will continue to strengthen - both as a critical source of raw materials and as a growth market for metals and fertilizers. Infrastructure development, grid expansion and industrialisation are supporting underlying demand for steel, aluminium and copper, while investment decisions increasingly hinge on cost competitiveness, logistics reliability and access to capital.
Policy and trade will be just as important as fundamentals. Carbon-linked measures such as the European Union’s CBAM raise the premium on emissions transparency and low-carbon pathways, while resource nationalism is accelerating efforts in some countries to retain more value through local processing and tighter control over exports. Meanwhile, fertilizer affordability and supply resilience remain central to food security planning, keeping nitrogen, phosphate and potash flows highly sensitive to price and disruption.
Key themes to watch
- Infrastructure and power investment supporting metals demand across the region
- Trade and carbon regulation reshaping competitiveness into premium markets
- Resource nationalism driving new requirements for local beneficiation and downstream capacity
- Battery and energy-transition linkages influencing investment interest in select minerals
- Fertilizer affordability and import dependence remaining a key macro risk factor
