In 2026, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will remain a pivotal region in global commodities - anchored by energy and fertilizer exports, and increasingly shaped by infrastructure build-out, electrification and industrial policy. With global growth slowing only modestly and the AI/data-centre investment cycle sustaining materials demand, MENA’s competitive advantages in energy, logistics and scale will stay in focus.
At the same time, trade frictions and carbon regulation are becoming decisive. Carbon-linked measures (including EU CBAM) elevate the value of emissions transparency across metals and industrial supply chains, while shifting tariff regimes and strategic investment priorities continue to reshape trade routes, project economics and procurement choices across the region.
Key themes to watch
- Policy-led trade and carbon costs influencing market access and competitiveness
- Infrastructure, grids and data centres supporting metals and cable demand
- Fertilizer and ammonia strategy shifting toward cost, carbon and security of supply
- Volatility in raw materials affecting steelmaking and downstream pricing
