Antimony market prices are down 36% from the June 2025 peak, when they hit 6.65x the 2020 average. The rally was fuelled by surging PV demand paired with supply disruption and export controls from the largest global producer – China. While prices remain elevated, substitution and new supply are now exerting downward pressure on prices. Despite the current downward fall in antimony prices, the new average price will likely be different from the historical average because of changes in market fundamentals.
Since 2021, antimony prices had been slowly increasing due to a structural deficit in the market. This was trend was amplified by Chinese export restrictions in 2025, leading to a sharp price rally to a near-term peak of $60,000 /t Sb in June, where antimony prices were 6.65 times their 2020 average.
This price shock, along with genuine difficulty in material sourcing, forced buyers to look for thrift or find alternatives for antimony in their supply chain. At the same time, the elevated price environment incentivised higher-cost marginal production to come online, establishing a new (potentially temporary) price floor. As a result, antimony prices have remained higher than the historical average, despite retreating from their peak seen in June 2025.
Antimony market prices rallied as the market tightened
A structural deficit has characterised the antimony market since 2022, fuelled by two reinforcing dynamics:
- Demand: Antimony demand from PV was about 330% higher in 2024 than in 2020, reflecting strong growth in the photovoltaic (PV) market. Antimony trioxide is used in manufacturing of PV glass to reduce light absorption from iron(II) oxide in PV glass by converting it into iron(III) oxide. This increases the transmittance of the glass, thereby increasing the efficiency of the PV module – a key consideration for PV module buyers.
- Supply: In 2025, antimony supply from China was 24% lower than the production in 2021 due to a government crackdown on illegal mining from 2022 and a deterioration in ore grades. China plays a critical role in global antimony supply, as in 2025, it accounted for 61% of global production. Since a crackdown on illegal mining in 2022, Chinese output has struggled to return to historical levels. The resulting supply shock was further intensified in the USA, Europe and other markets outside China when Beijing introduced export restrictions on antimony.
Even in the absence of China’s export regulations, such large market disruptions caused by a demand surge and supply shock can trigger sharp price increases. This is especially true for minor metals, which are highly volatile and have low price elasticity because they contribute little to final product costs. A demand surge followed by decline in supply created a catalytic environment for antimony market prices to rise. Trade restrictions imposed by China further amplified an already stressed market and helped drive the rally that culminated in June 2025.
Minor metal market inflation is real, but antimony overshot
Since early 2020, CRU’s basket of minor metals have increase driven by growth in new end uses related to the energy transition and AI end uses, with more recent geopolitical tensions and trade barriers adding to the momentum. However, antimony prices outside China rose far more steeply compared to other minor metals after trade controls produced acute supply shortages outside China.
As noted earlier, three factors combined to trigger the antimony price rally: (a) falling supply, (b) a rapid surge in demand, and (c) export restrictions imposed by China. Together, these forces created the conditions for a sharp price spike.
Given antimony is a minor metal, it is associated with low price elasticity. This is because as minor metals account for a small share of end product costs, as a result price movements hardly quickly prompt buyers to seek alternatives or adjust usage, amplifying market swings. The above chart compares how CRU’s minor metal price basket and antimony have behaved 2015 onwards.
CRU’s minor metal price basket price trends: Prior to 2020, minor metal prices generally hovered around 2015 average price, reflecting an absence of major structural shocks. That pattern started shifting 2020 onwards, largely driven by Chinese trade restrictions and growth in new end-use sectors. China is the dominant supplier of many minor metals, and after the country introduced export restrictions, prices for several minor metals rose sharply.
Antimony prices: Before 2021, antimony prices closely tracked the minor metal average and remained near historical norms. From 2021 onward, antimony prices began to diverge as the market tightened – this divergence accelerated in 2024–2025 when prices spiked further amid China’s export regulations.
While minor metal prices were above historical norms in 2025, antimony prices had clearly overshot its averages. That overshoot proved unsustainable – despite robust underlying fundamentals (tight supply and strong demand), the extreme price spike led to demand destruction and a subsequent fall in antimony prices.
Despite low price elasticity, the minor metals market is not immune to demand shocks
Minor metals are typically used in small quantities to enhance alloy properties and performance – some experts liken their role to the “MSG of metals.” Advances in technology have made many of these metals essential to modern life. Subsequently, despite their relatively small market size, minor metals perform critical functions across many industries.
A minor metal generally exhibits low price elasticity of demand as demand tends to remain stable through normal price cycles because these metals represent a small share of final product cost. Nonetheless, extreme price spikes can break the price rally through three primary channels:
- Demand destruction – end users reduce usage, postpone purchases or redesign products to lower exposure.
- Substitution – buyers actively qualify and adopt alternatives when price volatility and supply risk become intolerable.
- New supply – higher prices can prompt marginal producers to bring additional capacity online quickly.
A useful analogue is vanadium in 2018 – after a sharp price spike driven by a change in China’s rebar standards, steelmakers increasingly considered niobium as an alternative, despite vanadium being a relatively minor cost input. While niobium did not cause long term demand destruction for vanadium, the price shock was large enough to trigger active searches for substitutes, and new supply subsequently entered the market to help alleviate the shortage.
Unlike the vanadium rally, antimony’s price rise was driven by a new, sustained demand outlet and supply disruption. As a result, while vanadium largely returned to historical averages after its spike, it is far less clear that antimony will follow the same path given the structural change in the market.
Please note that though vanadium now has an emerging demand channel in vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs), this market has only become materially significant very recently. See this insight for more details.
As antimony prices overshot, is price correction looming or will there be a new normal?
Antimony market prices surged by 76% in 2024 compared to the previous year. This momentum accelerated into 2025, with prices jumping another 47% between January and June alone. While the rally was driven by strong fundamentals, it ultimately overshot, similar to the 2018 price spike in the vanadium market.
This price spike prompted both demand substitution and new supply coming online in late 2025, mirroring the dynamics seen in the vanadium market. However, the antimony price rally was driven by three distinct and powerful factors:
- A surge in demand from a novel application
- A supply shock caused by closures of illegal mines
- Geopolitical tensions manifesting as export restrictions
This makes the antimony market outlook structurally different from the vanadium market. CRU examines the past and projected dynamics of the antimony market in much greater detail in our Antimony Special Report 2025.
Interest in critical minor metals is rising as China continues to protect strategic interests through trade restrictions, and as new end uses emerge driven by the energy transition and AI. CRU supports clients navigating these complex markets through price assessments, market reports, and bespoke consulting projects. To learn more about our antimony report, please contact us.
