Middle East and North Africa Focus

The main impact on the ferrous value chain from the Middle East conflict will be higher energy costs in a prolonged scenario. Oil and gas prices are already moving higher and, over time, this will impact steelmaking costs across all regions.

Geopolitical shocks do not always become commodity shocks. However, when a conflict disrupts a chokepoint that sits at the heart of energy trade, the pathway from headlines to physical disruption can be very short. In our latest analysis, we assess an escalating conflict involving Iran, Israel and the US – and why the Strait of Hormuz is the single most important variable for global commodity markets.

This insight assesses how conflict in the Middle East could affect aluminium and alumina markets. The most acute near-term risk is disruption to shipping and logistics, especially through the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, there is no confirmation of physical damage to production assets

Commodity markets do not need a full shutdown to reprice risk – they need credible uncertainty about whether material can move and whether producers can operate safely. Our latest analysis looks at the immediate market reaction to the escalation of conflict in the Middle East and the channels through which the risk of commodity market disruptions is likely to spread from energy into metals, fertilizers and wider industrial costs.