CRU held its fifteenth Silicon Market Forum in Lyon, France during 23–25 September 2025. The conference featured a site visit, presentations and networking opportunities for over 200 professionals from 140 companies. Jorn de Linde announced his retirement from CRU, with Sabrina Lu succeeding him as editor of the CRU's Silicon Metal Market Outlook and Silicon Cost Data Service. We have identified four key topics from the conference discussions.
Supply
- Ferroglobe announced the shutdown of its silicon metal production in Europe (France and Spain) starting from end-September 2025. This will further reduce European production levels, leaving very limited active capacity in the region.
- With European spot prices below production costs, its production remains disadvantaged in global competition.
- China continues to dominate global silicon metal supply and despite reduced production in 2025, Chinese inventories remain high.
- The supply overhang is expected to persist into 2026.
Demand
- Global silicon metal demand remains muted, primarily due to weakness in the polysilicon/solar markets.
- Silicon metal buyers are adopting a wait-and-see approach given increased uncertainty and limited market visibility, while existing inventory levels remain plentiful enough to defer purchasing decisions.
- The solar sector is expected to be the key driver of future silicon metal consumption, with electrification trends potentially providing additional upside over the longer term.
Prices
- Chinese silicon metal prices are expected to remain subdued in the near term. A meaningful price recovery is more probable beyond 2026, following destocking.
- While detailed measures of China’s ‘Anti-Involution’ Campaign across the solar value chain have not yet been clarified, the preceding Supply-Side Structural Reformin China's steel sector suggests potential positive implications for the solar and silicon metal industries.
- Outside China, US spot prices will continue to find support from tariff and trade measures. European spot prices are likely to remain under pressure, awaiting clarity on safeguard measures
Trade and Regulations
- European silicon metal producers will remain uncompetitive against low-priced silicon metal imports, unless safeguard measures or other protective actions are implemented.
- Amid the ongoing trade case in the US, Norway received a lower preliminary countervailing duty rate compared with other countries under investigation, but the impact will remain uncertain until antidumping decisions are announced and an injury determination is made.
- Environmental regulations – potentially including CBAM – present additional challenges for the European industry.
