The text below is an edited version of an Insight originally published on CRU Online, dated 30 April 2026. For the full version, contact us here.
The ongoing crisis in the Middle East, centred around a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is causing severe disruptions to global commodity markets. With shipping traffic through the vital waterway drastically reduced, the ripple effects are being felt across the energy and fertilizer sectors. Some sulphur and sulphuric acid prices have been driven to record highs, with the picture for acid exacerbated by China’s halt in exports. Our latest analysis indicates a resolution remains distant, suggesting a prolonged period of market volatility.
Energy and ammonia markets feel the strain
The disruption has sent immediate shockwaves through energy markets. Brent crude oil recently spiked, reaching its highest level since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The constriction of maritime trade has also severely limited ammonia supply, leading to extended price gains as buyers compete for scarce volumes.
Sulphur and sulphuric acid prices see unprecedented rises
The sulphur market has experienced another week of significant price increases. The impact is particularly acute in the sulphuric acid market, where our analysis shows prices in the crucial import market of Chile are rapidly approaching record highs. The logistical bottleneck is the primary driver, creating scarcity and forcing prices upwards across the supply chain.
A mixed picture in phosphate and urea
Outside the US, granular phosphate and phosphoric acid prices have continued to climb as a direct result of the supply constraints. However, the urea market has seen prices pull back from recent highs. This follows a major purchase by India, which has led producers with limited available volumes to lower their price targets in order to attract new buyers. Despite this, our estimates show key importers like the US are significantly behind their typical import schedules and still require substantial further volumes to meet demand.
Outlook: Uncertainty and high prices to continue
Many market participants are adopting a wait-and-see approach, hoping for a diplomatic breakthrough that could ease the blockade. However, with little positive news, the prospect of price relief for buyers appears to be a distant one. We expect continued price strength and volatility across these key commodity markets in the near term as the geopolitical situation remains unresolved.
Key price charts
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