Last week at the CRU London Client Seminar, our experts explored the energy shock in the Middle East and its impact on commodity value chains. With a particular focus on aluminium and fertilizers, the seminar dissected both the immediate disruption to supply chains and the longer-term implications for commodity demand, energy security, and the accelerating energy transition.
Held in London, the seminar brought together CRU’s expertise in market intelligence, the commodities market, economics and the energy transition for a wide-ranging discussion on how businesses can respond to a period of intensified volatility and uncertainty.
Looking beyond the immediate crisis
The seminar opened with an insightful presentation by Chris Lawson, VP – Market Intelligence & Prices, examining the short- and long-term implications of the Middle East shock and its impact on CRU commodity prices. The session highlighted how commodity prices have responded to the conflict, drawing on expert analysis of changes across more than 800 CRU prices and market observations. The key takeaway was that the shock is not over yet – once the strait reopens, prices are likely to respond but not quickly return to normal.
Alex Tuckett, Head of Economics, then provided an overview of the immediate supply risks, the energy price shock, and the resulting implications for global commodity demand. Simon Price, Director of Energy Transition, followed with a longer-term outlook, examining how the drive for energy security is accelerating the energy transition and what that could mean for future demand patterns.
The seminar also featured a live demonstration of the CRU Risk Tracker, introduced by Panos Kotseras, Research Manager, and Matthew Perlman, Senior Innovation Manager. Built around the themes of risk and uncertainty, the demonstration showed how the new innovative solution can help clients identify, monitor, and manage shifting risk profiles across supply chains.
Panel discussion: Commodity impacts and supply chain vulnerability
A moderated panel discussion then brought the day’s themes together in a commodity-specific deep-dive. Moderated by Simon Price, the panel featured:
- Ross Strachan, Head of Aluminium Raw Materials
- Chris Lawson, VP, Market Intelligence & Prices
- Yessica Dames, Associate Senior Consultant
The discussion focused on the real-world impacts of the conflict on aluminium, fertilizers and copper, with particular attention paid to supply chain vulnerability and how businesses can identify and manage new risks.
If you would like to discuss risks, CRU commodity prices or the energy transition in more detail, please contact us. Our experts would be pleased to continue the conversation and explore how these trends may affect your business.
Crisis in the Middle East: what does it mean for the Energy Transition?
The geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has led to a huge shock to global energy markets. However, the impacts have been different to what we say in the energy crisis that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In the longer term, this crisis will create renewed momentum towards energy security - which can go hand in hand with both decarbonisation and electrification.
In this webinar, CRU analysts from the Economics and Sustainability teams will explore how the shockwaves from this crisis could play out in the short and long run, and what this means for commodity demand.
