The current aluminium price in Asia tells a story of mounting pressure – and is a stark contrast to other regions. CRU's Asia CIF aluminium premium, last assessed at $202/t, has extended its gap with the MJP Q3 benchmark of $395/t, forcing sellers' hands ahead of Q4 negotiations. With only days remaining before the new quarter begins, MJP Q4 offers have slid sharply from opening bids of $325/t in early September to a range of $245–260/t, reflecting just how quickly sentiment has deteriorated.
Aluminium premiums across the region are under significant strain, with Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan bearing the brunt of the decline. As regional LME hub markets, these countries are particularly exposed to spot price movements, making their aluminium premium prices more sensitive to shifts in supply and sentiment. By contrast, Vietnam and Thailand - more dependent on imported metal - have seen premiums hold comparatively firm. Inventories continue to build across the region, weighed down by weak underlying demand and a cautious trading environment.
European aluminium pricing and global trade flows are adding a further layer of complexity to aluminium premiums explained in an Asian context. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has already curtailed the flow of metal transiting from East to West, tightening one of the key arteries of global aluminium trade. Compounding this, the recent collapse of US–Canada trade talks - which briefly raised the prospect of Canadian tariffs reverting from 50% to 25% - has introduced fresh uncertainty. Although the tariff remains at 50%, the episode has highlighted how quickly the trade policy landscape can shift, and traders are responding by avoiding exposure to metal held over long shipping routes. This is despite clearly superior netbacks for producing regions selling into Europe.
While the sentiment and outlook for the European market remains firm for Q4, the same cannot be said for Asia. Premiums are retreating quickly, and the slew of new capacity hitting the market in 2027 will first proliferate across Asia.
CRU is raising the standard for aluminium premium assessments. High-frequency, globally contextualised premiums for the underpinning of contracts and better-informed decisions. Talk to CRU about the price that reflects your market. We will be hosting a breakfast briefing at the upcoming Aluminium Exhibition in Dusseldorf. If you are involved in the sales, trading, procurement or pricing of aluminium and related materials, we would be pleased to welcome you – register here
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