CRU has published a new report titled Climate Change Scenarios, providing a scenario-based outlook for macroeconomics, heavy industry and key metals. Available as a free download, the report is designed to help decision-makers in financial services, mining, metals and industrial sectors understand how different climate change pathways – and the policy, technology and market forces that shape them – could reshape commodity markets and value chains.
Three climate scenarios, grounded in commodity-market data
The report sets out three plausible climate change pathways – accelerated action, current trajectory and delayed action – and translates each into implications for GDP, industrial production, inflation and investment dynamics. It then connects these macroeconomic outcomes to commodity markets, with specific context for copper, aluminium, steel and fertilizers.
Unlike conventional top-down scenario frameworks, the analysis is built from the ground up, combining CRU's asset-level emissions data and bottom-up industry modelling with big-picture drivers of decarbonisation – including policy and regulation, carbon pricing, clean technology adoption and electrification trends. The result is a scenario-based risk analysis that is grounded in real commodity market dynamics and directly applicable to strategic planning and risk assessment.
Why this matters now
Climate risk, energy transition and decarbonisation are key for decision-makers across every sector CRU serves. Governments are tightening climate policy, carbon pricing mechanisms are expanding, and companies across commodity-intensive industries face growing pressure to understand what different climate change pathways mean for their assets, portfolios and value chains.
The report provides a structured, data-led framework to support this analysis – covering transition risks and physical climate risks in a way that is directly relevant to strategy, risk and sustainability teams in financial services, mining, metals, energy and industrial manufacturing.
Key takeaways
- Three climate scenarios – accelerated action, current trajectory and delayed action – with macroeconomic and commodity-market implications.
- Transition risks and physical climate risks translated into market-relevant outcomes.
- Macroeconomic analysis covering GDP, industrial production, inflation and interest rates.
- Commodity-specific context for copper, aluminium, steel and fertilizers.
- A practical framework linking climate change pathways to commodity fundamentals.
Part of CRU's Energy Transition and Decarbonisation (ET&D) Service
The Climate Change Scenarios report is one of six pillars of CRU’s Energy Transition and Decarbonisation (ET&D) Service, offering a preview of the analytical rigour the full service delivers across emissions trends, policy and regulation, carbon markets and pricing, clean technology, electrification and commodity-market intelligence, and providing scenario-based decision support to help organisations navigate the energy transition.
