The first half of 2026 has shown that commodity markets are no longer moving in familiar cycles. Instead, we are in an era of structural disruption, driven by a powerful convergence of forces: geopolitical conflict, soaring AI infrastructure demand and a new wave of global protectionism.
CRU's Mid-Year Commodity Outlook for 2026 navigates this complex new reality, revealing how these forces are creating unprecedented volatility, redrawing trade flows and fundamentally reshaping demand for key commodities.
The AI boom is here, and it is hungry for materials
The explosion in AI and data centre investment is no longer a future trend, but rather the dominant demand driver in critical sectors. The insatiable need for processing power is translating directly into material demand. Our mid-year analysis reveals that demand for copper from data centres is now forecast to reach 682,000 tonnes in 2026 alone.
This AI-driven demand extends into the digital backbone of our economy, with markets for optical fibre experiencing a severe "glass preform shortage" as hyperscalers and even military applications compete for supply.
Geopolitics and protectionism rewrite the rules
From the Middle East conflict disrupting shipping lanes to new carbon tariffs in Europe, geopolitics and trade policy have upended forecasts across the commodity space.
Our Outlook details how Europe’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is creating a structurally higher price floor for steel, and how conflict in the Strait of Hormuz sent shockwaves through the aluminium, sulphur and fertilizer markets. These events highlight a new reality where understanding regional policy and geopolitical risk is as critical as tracking supply and demand fundamentals.
Uncover the full picture with CRU's trusted expertise
These are just a few of the critical insights from our latest analysis. The full Mid-Year Commodity Outlook for 2026 provides a comprehensive view across steel, aluminium, copper, battery materials, fertilizers and more, offering the detailed forecasts and expert analysis you need to navigate today's interconnected and volatile markets.
Discover:
- Which commodity markets are fragmenting the fastest;
- How by-product economics are keeping smelters running against the odds; and
- Where the next supply chain bottlenecks and opportunities will emerge.
Download the full Mid-Year Commodity Outlook for 2026 today to gain a critical advantage in a rapidly changing world.
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