The text below is an edited version of an Insight originally published on CRU Online, dated 15 June 2026. For the full version, contact us here.
The extension of the US-Iran ceasefire has brought a clear sense of relief to global markets. Most importantly, it has increased the likelihood that flows through the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world’s most strategically important trade arteries – will increase, in line with our expectations. That matters not only for oil and gas, but for a wider group of commodity markets that remain highly sensitive to disruptions in energy, shipping and logistics.
However, risks have not disappeared. The ceasefire does not restore normality on its own. For commodity buyers, sellers and investors, the important question is what comes next – how quickly physical flows recover, whether confidence returns across shipping markets and how much resilience is really left in the system if disruption re-emerges.
Despite lower risk, the environment has not returned to normal
Markets have responded as they typically do when geopolitical tensions ease. Immediate risk premia come down, sentiment improves and attention shifts from crisis management to recovery – an understandable response.
However, a diplomatic agreement and a functioning physical market are not the same thing. Reopening a route as critical as Hormuz is a necessary step, but it is only the beginning. Shipping operators, insurers and physical market participants still need confidence that transit conditions are stable, predictable and commercially workable. That confidence takes time to rebuild.
This is where commodity markets often diverge from the early price response. Futures can move quickly on headlines. Physical markets usually recover more slowly, especially when participants remain alert to the possibility of renewed disruption.
Physical recovery may lag market optimism
The return to normal trade flows is unlikely to be immediate. Logistics systems disrupted by conflict do not simply reset overnight. Vessels need to move safely, backlogs need to clear and risk assessments need to change across the shipping and insurance chain.
Even when the worst-case scenario is avoided, the after-effects can linger. Freight costs may remain elevated, and insurance pricing may continue to reflect geopolitical caution. Some operators may choose to delay or limit exposure until they are convinced the ceasefire has real durability.
That has direct implications for commodity markets. Oil and natural gas are the obvious focus, but the effect is broader. Any market tied to Gulf exports, energy pricing or regional shipping networks can experience a prolonged adjustment period, even after the immediate geopolitical shock fades from view. Nitrogen-based fertilizers, sulphur and aluminium markets will all take time to adjust back to normality.
Inventories have absorbed part of the shock
Another reason to remain cautious is that the market’s resilience during the crisis appears to have depended partly on buffers. Alternative logistical routes, stock drawdowns and short-term flexibility have all helped limit the visible damage.
That is encouraging, but it also raises an important strategic point. If a system relies on buffers to absorb disruption, it becomes less resilient as those buffers are used up. A market emerging from crisis with thinner inventories and less spare flexibility may look calm on the surface but is more vulnerable underneath.
This is why the ceasefire should be seen as a reduction in downside risk, rather than the removal of it. If flows fail to normalise fully or tensions return, markets may have less protection available than they did at the outset of the disruption.
China remains central to the next phase
The next stage of market adjustment will not be driven by supply alone. Demand behaviour – particularly in China – will help determine how the market rebalances from here.
If buyers move to rebuild stocks quickly, that could reinforce price support even in a less volatile geopolitical environment. If they remain cautious and defer purchases, the pace of recovery may be slower and more uneven. Either way, China remains a decisive variable in shaping how post-crisis conditions evolve across energy-linked commodity markets.
What this means for decision-makers
For business leaders, traders and procurement teams, the key message is straightforward – this is a moment for disciplined interpretation, not complacency. The ceasefire is clearly constructive and removes an important immediate threat – however, it does not close the wider risk case.
In our view, the real test now lies in operational recovery. How quickly can physical flows normalise? How willing are shippers and insurers to re-engage? How much inventory resilience remains in the system? And how will demand respond once the initial relief passes?
Those are the questions that will shape the next phase of commodity market direction. The immediate crisis may have eased, but strategic uncertainty has not.
