The text below is an edited version of an Insight originally published on CRU Online, dated 4 August 2026. For the full version, contact us here.
Between 15–21 July, Central and North-Central Chile – where several large-scale copper mines are located – was affected by a severe winter storm. The storm brought heavy rainfall to lower areas and significant snowfall in the high Andes, with the last similar event taking place in 1997.
Atacama and Coquimbo, home to major mines such as Los Pelambres and Caserones, were among the most affected regions. Given that these are normally dry regions with limited winter rainfall, the event was particularly significant. In some areas, rainfall recorded during the week was greater than the whole of the 2025 winter season, while snowfall at higher elevations was more than five times that of winter 2025.
Copper industry faces widespread operational disruptions
Our analysis identified 16 copper operations across the affected regions facing potential disruptions. These mines represent a substantial portion of Chile's monthly copper output. The disruptions were not uniform – some operations suspended production entirely, while others continued processing stockpiled material. Lundin Mining's Caserones facility, for example, was offline for several weeks following damage to transmission infrastructure. Antofagasta Minerals' Los Pelambres and Teck's Carmen de Andacollo also partially suspended operations, though critical tailings facilities remained intact.
A return to normal operations will not be immediate
The production impact extends beyond the immediate shutdown period. Even when mines resume operations, returning to normal production rates typically requires additional weeks. Site conditions such as snow, flooding and landslides can slow recovery further.
Logistics constraints that restrict worker and supply access compound these challenges. Based on these recovery timelines, we estimate the total production impact could reach a significant volume of copper in concentrates and cathode copper combined.
Chile’s copper production outlook endures further pressure
This disruption arrives at a particularly challenging moment. Chile's copper production already faces headwinds, with preliminary data showing second-quarter output down substantially year-on-year, marking the lowest second-quarter production in nearly two decades. The weather-related losses add further downside risk to the country's 2026 production forecast and make an annual decline more probable.
However, the situation is not without hope. With the second half of the year still ahead, some affected operations may recover lost output before year-end. That said, El Niño conditions introduce additional uncertainty around rainfall patterns and other winter-related disruptions.
For more in-depth coverage on challenges disrupting copper production and supply, please get in touch – we would be happy to talk.
