Since early 2025, fast-evolving trade policies have caused steel prices in the US to diverge from trends seen in Mexico. To better track prices in Mexico, CRU has launched a weekly assessment for Mexican hot-rolled steel coil prices. CRU will publish the assessment every Wednesday in the Steel Sheet Products Monitor, alongside the existing weekly HR coil distribution price. The mill price will reflect direct sales from producers, whereas the distribution price will continue to capture transactions made by distributors.
Renewed Section 232 tariffs, which took effect in March 2025, have prompted companies to reshape supply chains across North America, altering the flow of steel and steel derivatives throughout the region. As a result, Mexican steel prices have decoupled from their US prices.
Since CRU began tracking mill-direct prices for HR coil this year, the premium for US HR coil prices over Mexico has hovered around US $300 /t. This spread is approximately $50 /t more than the spread seen last year. This price divergence may be sustained as the US government has not agreed to renew the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (UMSCA) in its current form, leaving Section 232 tariffs in place while negotiations continue.
While Mexican sheet prices track below US levels, they have risen sharply in recent months for similar reasons: limited production, low inventories, constrained imports, and higher costs linked to supply chain pressures. Stronger government spending, mill investment, and protectionist measures aimed at supporting domestic production have also supported the pricing uptrend.
Market contacts expect the divergence between Mexican and US prices to continue for the foreseeable future, until the governments of both countries reach an agreement on commercial disputes centered on rules of origin and melt-and-pour requirements.
Mexico's economy is heavily dependent on trade with the US, with 80% of its exports heading north across the border. The US imported a record $534.9 billion of goods from Mexico in 2025, up 5.8% ($29.4 billion) from 2024. Despite the record imports, steel imports did not follow this trend, as US imports of steel products totaled $25.1 billion in 2025, down 20.8% from $31.7 billion in the previous year.
