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Global pandemic triggers global recession : Implications for CRU’s global macro and commodity outlook

View CRU's latest Covid-19 webinar focusing on steel, aluminium, and the global economic outlook. 


The global impact of Covid-19 has been profound. Lockdowns of countries and regions are now the norm. Uncertainty about the ultimate economic cost of this health crisis has fuelled financial market volatility and prompted unprecedented government support. This webinar will set out CRUs latest global outlook, and implications for two key commodity markets: steel and aluminium.

Topics discussed:

  • CRU’s global macro forecast
    - Global recession and contraction in world industrial production
    - China sees a hard landing in 2020, despite a quick return to normality
    - EU and the USA enter recession
  • Implication for steel
    - Steel sheet demand in the USA to fall 25%
    - Mills quickly cut production and idle mills
    - Sheet prices may fall back towards lows last seen in 2015
  • Implications for aluminium
    - Massive primary aluminium surplus unavoidable in 2020
    - LME to average $1,425 in Q2
    - Ex. China primary aluminium demand to fall >10% in 2020

This webinar was originally recorded on 2 April 2020 for CRU's subscribers. View the webinar on-demand and please get in touch for additional questions for our economics, analysis, and consulting teams.

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